factotum

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Are Power-Law and Normal-Distribution Problems Mutually Exclusive?

Once again, Malcom Gladwell has written an excellent analysis of a social problem and offered up a unique take on the issue. However, he seems to suggest that problems with a normal distribution and those with a power-law distribution (and the solutions to those problems) are mutually exclusive. He says "Power-law problems leave us with an unpleasant choice. We can be true to our principles or we can fix the problem. We cannot do both."

It seems to me that problems have power-law distributions when the solutions to the normal-distribution part of the problem are effective. A small minority of cars are gross polluters because the pollution control laws have been effective in getting carmakers to make cleaner cars and car owners to better maintain them. Presumably, only a small number of police use excessive force because the institutional controls and consequences are effective in deterring abuses by the "broad middle." And isn't it possible that the reason the majority of homeless people are only on the streets a day or two is because the shelters, soup kitchens, and other social services aimed at the broad middle are effective? If we removed those services, might we end up with a normal-distribution problem?

I would argue that the real solution to these problems lies in applying both the normal-distribution and the power-law solutions. Focusing simply on one aspect of these problems will only result in exacerbating the other.